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Voting with Their Feet? Local Economic Conditions and Migration Patterns in New England

This paper, written by a senior economist at the The New England Public Policy Center at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, examines factors underlying why, after the 2001 recession, the number of people leaving New England exceeded those entering. It examines statistically the relative role of three economic factors—labor market conditions, per capita incomes, and housing affordability—in determining domestic state-to-state migration flows. The paper finds that, while all three economic conditions are significant determinants of migration, their impact varies and has changed considerably over time. For example, the importance of per capita income has fallen considerably since the late 1970s, while that of housing affordability has risen. Forecasts show that, while New England will continue to lose individuals to other states this year, the pace of out-migration will likely slow because the region is performing slightly better than the nation as a whole during the current recession. However, this trend may reverse itself if economic conditions deteriorate in the New England states relative to other parts of the country.




Smart places, getting smarter: Facts about the young professional population in the New England states

This discussion paper, written by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Senior Policy Analyst Heather Brome, builds on earlier research about trends in the region’s young professionals: it looks at the supply of young professionals in each New England state. The analysis reveals that, while there are some differences, all states are facing slow growth or no growth in this population. However, young people in New England states are highly educated and their educational attainment has increased over time, which bodes well for the future productivity of the labor force.